Bettors on prediction platforms in India, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, are showing a negative outlook on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting a contraction in the US economy during the first quarter of 2025. This shift in sentiment is significant as the US has consistently shown positive growth figures since 2022, and any reversal could signal the onset of a recession. The sudden change in predictions on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, saw Q1 US growth estimates drop from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours. Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are now setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at approximately 70%. This change in sentiment is attributed to Canada’s recent election of Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister, who has taken a more aggressive stance in the trade war with the US. The outcome of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis report on April 30 will shed more light on the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Prediction markets have been accurate in the past, forecasting events like Trump’s election win and the Republican Party’s success in the US House and Senate in 2024. The ongoing tariff turmoil initiated by Trump has added to the economic uncertainty, with the prospect of a global trade war looming. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index has already reported sharp declines in activity, indicating the potential impact of the tariffs on manufacturers’ production costs. This macroeconomic uncertainty is influencing the betting markets and the overall economic outlook.