The ongoing Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, characterized by a 20% or more drop from its all-time high, is predicted to be relatively mild and last only about 90 days, as per market analyst Timothy Peterson, known for his work on Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value. Peterson compared this downturn to the last 10 bear markets, occurring yearly, and noted that only four have been more severe in terms of duration, such as 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. He anticipates BTC will stabilize above $50,000 due to adoption trends, and unlikely to drop below $80,000 based on momentum. Peterson forecasts a potential slide in the coming 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally post-April 15, attracting weak investors back into the market. The recent decline in crypto markets was triggered by US President Trump’s trade tariffs and retaliatory measures from US trading partners, heightening concerns of an extended trade conflict. Investor interest in speculative assets is waning amid this trade war and macroeconomic uncertainties. Metrics like Glassnode Hot Supply reveal a decline in BTC holdings for one week or less. Analysts suggest that trade war pressures will persist until April 2025, pending international negotiations. Additionally, data from CryptoQuant indicates most retail traders are already invested in BTC, dispelling hopes for a surge in retail capital to boost prices. The trade war has also cast doubts on Bitcoin’s safe haven status, as its value fluctuates alongside other risk assets. This article does not offer investment advice; readers are advised to conduct their research before making financial decisions.