Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk of entering a fresh bear market as multiple BTC price metrics indicate a “bearish divergence.” A recent social media discussion highlighted concerning signals from Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index. Created in 2022, the Bitcoin Macro Index uses machine learning to analyze various metrics that provide insights into Bitcoin’s historical value. Since late 2023, the index has been showing lower highs while the price continues to reach higher highs, signaling a potential bearish trend. The Index’s creator, Charles Edwards, expressed disappointment with this development. Onchain analytics sources suggest that Bitcoin is facing macro turbulence, with several metrics in a state of flux. These metrics, such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), point to short to mid-term turbulence in the market. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric turned bearish in February, indicating a challenging phase for Bitcoin. To reverse this trend, the IFP needs to surpass its 90-day simple moving average (SMA). While these metrics do not suggest an overheated market, they do imply ongoing volatility in the Bitcoin market. It is essential for investors to conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
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