Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, raising the probability of a US recession to 45% citing worries over President Trump’s tariff proposals and their impact on the global economy. This adjustment is in line with similar moves by other leading investment banks like JP Morgan, which have also heightened their recession risk estimates. As a result, Goldman Sachs is now expecting the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates from June onwards to counter the potential economic downturn. The escalating trade tensions between the US and its key trading partners have sparked concerns among financial institutions about the negative consequences on global growth. The uncertainty surrounding the trade policies and their implications on various industries has led to a cautious outlook among investors and analysts alike. The heightened recession probability underscores the growing apprehensions about the stability of the US economy in the face of escalating trade disputes. With the Federal Reserve closely monitoring the situation, the upcoming interest rate cuts are seen as a preemptive measure to safeguard against the potential economic fallout from the trade tensions. The latest developments in the trade war have added to the uncertainties surrounding the global economic landscape, prompting investors to brace for potential market volatility in the coming months.