Bitcoin Surges to $83.5K as Trump Announces Tariff Pause, But Pro Traders Remain Cautious

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, except for China, caused a significant shift in US equities and crypto markets on April 9. In response, Bitcoin (BTC) price surged by 5% in less than an hour, reaching $83,000, last seen on April 6. Despite the S&P 500 gaining 8%, Bitcoin derivative metrics have not turned bullish as traders remain cautious about changes in US long-term government bonds. The BTC futures premium briefly rose above the neutral 5% threshold but failed to sustain momentum, reflecting investor skepticism about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The release of minutes from the Federal Reserve Committee meeting on March 18-19 raised concerns about stagflation, leading to decreased confidence in the US government’s ability to manage its growing debt. This uncertainty has been mirrored in Bitcoin options markets, with traders showing hesitancy amid a weakened 10-year US Treasury yield. The lack of conviction from bulls is evident in Bitcoin derivatives, with put options trading at a premium and the 25% delta skew remaining above 6%. Despite a temporary spike in the Bitcoin options delta skew following China’s announcement of higher tariffs, sentiment shifted to a neutral position post-Trump’s tariff pause. Overall, BTC derivatives metrics suggest a lack of bullish sentiment, with uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment playing a significant role. The 30-day Bitcoin futures funding rate rose to 0.9% on April 9, indicating retail buyer activity, but remaining within a neutral range. The persisting trade war tensions with China add to the uncertainty in the market. Reduced macroeconomic uncertainty, such as a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield, may be a key factor in driving Bitcoin traders to adopt a bullish stance.

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