Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession to 45% as concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariffs and their impact on the global economy mount. This shift in outlook has been mirrored by other major investment banks like JP Morgan, who have also increased their recession risk predictions. As a result of these concerns, Goldman Sachs is now forecasting that the Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates as early as June. The uncertainty surrounding trade tensions and their potential effects on the economy have led to these adjustments in economic forecasts by prominent financial institutions.