Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that Bitcoin remains undervalued with an optimistic mid-term outlook as the JOLTS report indicates a decrease in open US jobs, fueling hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s mid-term perspective has shifted to an “optimism” zone, with the investment firm observing that BTC is moving towards “undervaluation.” The firm referenced the ‘Bitcoin Yardstick’ metric, which divides BTC’s market capitalization by its hashrate, indicating that Bitcoin is relatively “cheaper” concerning the energy security of its network. In Q1 2025, the metric ranged between -1 and 3 standard deviations, lower than its overheated levels in Q4 2024. The number of days above 2-standard deviations decreased from 22 to 15, none surpassing 3, showcasing that Bitcoin is less costly in relation to its network strength. The firm noted that Bitcoin is in an “acceleration phase,” with rallies to new highs being common, although they cautioned about a potential blow-off top. The illiquid supply increased from 61.50% to 63.49%, while the liquid supply dropped by 4%, indicating a growing commitment to long-term positions among holders. Additionally, the Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio is currently 16% below its peak in 2017. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF experienced a substantial inflow of $970.9 million on April 28, 2025, making it the second-largest daily inflow since its launch in January 2024. Since April 22, IBIT has gathered over $4.5 billion in net inflows, standing out from competitors like Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK’s ARKB, which faced outflows. With assets under management exceeding $54 billion, IBIT holds a 51% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market. The US JOLTS report for March 2025 displayed a decline to 7.19 million from February’s 7.57 million, below the 7.48 million forecast, signaling a cooling labor market and raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could benefit Bitcoin. Economist Alex Kruger views the JOLTS data as a short-term positive for Bitcoin, positioning it as a “risk/gold hybrid” set to benefit from tariff de-escalation. Kruger predicts that market focus may shift to earnings guidance from companies like Caterpillar and tech stocks, while monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee meeting for signals on potential rate cuts. He warns of a possible Q3 economic slowdown, suggesting Bitcoin’s unique risk-reward profile may outperform overbought altcoins. This article serves informational purposes and does not offer investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their research before making any financial decisions.
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