The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking court approval to drop its appeal against prediction market Kalshi, allowing the platform to offer political event contracts to users uncontested. In a May 5 filing in the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, CFTC lawyers submitted an unopposed motion for voluntary dismissal, indicating a potential agreement with Kalshi. If approved by the court, the motion could end the CFTC’s appeal against a federal court ruling that prevented the regulator from prohibiting Kalshi from listing political event contracts, such as bets on elections. Kalshi agreed in a joint filing to cover its own costs and fees if the court grants the CFTC’s motion to dismiss. Following the filing, the platform affirmed that “election markets are here to stay.” The legal dispute began in 2023 when Kalshi sued the CFTC in response to an order to cease offering political event contracts. After winning in the lower court, the CFTC initiated an appeal in September 2024. The change in administration, particularly the appointment of acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham under President Donald Trump, may have influenced the decision to drop the appeal. CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger, nominated by former President Joe Biden, expressed support for election prediction markets earlier this year. Kalshi, established in 2021, gained popularity among crypto users, especially for bets related to the 2024 US election. Despite the CFTC’s concerns about market manipulation, the regulator’s recent motion to dismiss the appeal signals a shift in its stance.
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