The prices of ESPO Blend crude, a popular Russian oil grade sold to China, are set to stabilize soon due to an anticipated shift by independent refiners to lower-cost Iranian oil. Amid OPEC+ supply reductions and robust demand from major Chinese refiners for Russian crude, ESPO Blend prices have climbed to their tightest discounts since the Ukraine conflict. Nevertheless, the surge in Iranian oil exports to their highest levels in 4-1/2 years in August is likely to limit further increases in ESPO crude prices. China’s significant private refineries have been opting for ESPO crude, prompting smaller refiners to turn to more economical alternatives like Iranian oil. This shift in purchasing patterns is expected to balance the market and prevent significant escalation in ESPO Blend prices.